Canada's third-quarter annualized GDP surprises with growth of 2.6%

Author's Summary

Canada's Q3 2025 GDP surged 2.6% annualized, far exceeding 0.5% forecasts, fueled by oil exports and government spending amid weak investment and consumer demand; data may revise due to U.S. shutdown impacts. (148 characters)

Key Growth Figures

Canada's economy expanded at an annualized 2.6% pace in the third quarter, dodging a technical recession after a revised -1.8% drop the prior quarter. This outperformed analyst expectations of just 0.5% growth, with monthly GDP matching a forecasted 0.2% rise in September driven by 1.6% manufacturing output gains.

Driving Factors

Crude oil exports and elevated government spending propelled the activity, offsetting subdued business investment and household outlays. Notably, defense-related investments jumped significantly, while imports fell sharply and residential structures saw upticks.

Third-quarter annualized gross domestic product grew 2.6%, Statistics Canada said, escaping what could have been a technical recession.

Data Caveats

Figures derive from income and expenditure approaches, unlike monthly GDP from production; revisions loom larger in February owing to missing U.S. trade data from the government shutdown.

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Reuters Reuters — 2025-11-28

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