Decoupling of Bitcoin Price from Four-Year Cycle
The bitcoin price may be breaking away from its historic four-year rhythm, prompting questions about the role of global liquidity in major cycles.
By examining historical growth rates, liquidity data, and macroeconomic correlations, we can gain insight into whether the current cycle has diverged and what this means for investors.
Analyzing BTC Growth
Bitcoin has surpassed the elapsed time from cycle low to cycle high seen in previous bull markets, with the current cycle exceeding the 1,059 days of the 2018-2022 cycle.
- The 2018-2022 cycle peaked 1,059 days after its prior bear market low.
- The current cycle has moved beyond that duration.
Averaging the elapsed time across the last two full market cycles, Bitcoin has already exceeded the historical mean and is nearing the 2017 cycle length.
Has the bitcoin price finally broken away from its four-year cycle pattern, or is this bull market already entering exhaustion?
Author's summary: Bitcoin's price may be decoupling from its four-year cycle.
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