Estimating Internal Displacement in Ukraine from High-Frequency GPS Mobile Phone Data

Introduction

Nearly 110 million people around the world are forcibly displaced. Measuring the scope and dynamics of internal displacement, especially during conflicts, remains a major research and humanitarian challenge. This study focuses on Ukraine, using anonymized, high-frequency GPS data from mobile phones to estimate internal displacement patterns following the 2022 Russian invasion.

Research Background

Traditional data sources such as surveys or registration records often lag behind actual population movements. Therefore, near real-time approaches based on digital traces—like mobile phone location data—offer valuable complementary insights. However, such data must be handled with strict privacy safeguards and careful calibration to official sources.

Methodology

Researchers analyzed aggregated GPS data from mobile devices covering major Ukrainian regions. These data were combined with official population statistics and conflict intensity information. The model estimated daily population changes across administrative zones, highlighting both immediate displacement after attacks and longer-term migration trends.

"We observe distinct waves of internal movement corresponding to intensified hostilities and subsequent stabilization periods," the article notes.

The study distinguishes between temporary evacuations and sustained relocations, identifying regional hubs that served as safe zones and distribution centers for displaced populations.

Findings

The results indicate that millions of Ukrainians relocated internally, with western regions experiencing the most substantial influx. Patterns also revealed cyclical movement, where some displaced persons later returned to their home areas as security improved.

Displacement intensity closely correlated with conflict proximity and infrastructure damage, showing remarkable spatial clustering. These insights can support humanitarian allocation and crisis response planning.

Ethical Considerations

The authors emphasize anonymization, data security, and compliance with international privacy standards. Aggregation thresholds ensure that no individual movements can be traced. The study advocates for ethical frameworks in digital crisis monitoring to balance accuracy with human rights protection.

Conclusion

High-frequency mobile phone GPS data can become a powerful instrument for understanding human mobility during conflicts. While such data cannot replace traditional surveys, they enhance situational awareness for governments and humanitarian organizations, leading to faster and more targeted aid delivery.

"Digital mobility data represent an invaluable, yet underutilized, humanitarian tool," the researchers conclude.

Author Summary

The study demonstrates how anonymized GPS data can reveal real-time internal displacement trends in Ukraine, improving humanitarian response and policy planning.

Nature — 2025-11-28