Analysis shows that tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and cutting methane by 2030 and beyond would reduce the warming rate by a third in ten years and halve it by 2040. If governments were to implement three key climate actions they already negotiated and agreed in 2023—tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and acting to reduce methane emissions by 2030—they could cut global emissions by 18 billion tonnes in 2035 compared to current projections, according to new analysis released at COP30 by Climate Action Tracker.
If these actions continue, governments would put the world on track to lower projected 21st-century warming by about 0.9°C, from 2.6°C to 1.7°C. This could nearly equal the entire 1°C improvement seen over the ten years since the Paris Agreement was adopted and would be a major step toward keeping the 1.5°C limit in sight. The analysis also finds that by taking these three actions between now and 2035, the rate of warming would be reduced by a third in ten years and halved by 2040, whereas current warming is expected to accelerate by 2030 before gradually slowing down.
Cutting the rate of warming would bring substantial benefits for adaptation planning. However, action must start now and continue strongly well beyond 2035.
Note: The original text emphasizes three near-term actions—tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and reducing methane emissions—as key levers to curb warming. All figures refer to projected outcomes under continued policy action and are based on analysis released at COP30 by Climate Action Tracker.
Авторское резюме: Учитывая существовавшие договоренности 2023 года, три основных шага—удвоение энергоэффективности, тройное увеличение возобновляемых источников и снижение выбросов метана—могут существенно замедлить глобальное потепление к 2040 году и приблизить планку 1.5°C, если начать немедленно и действовать последовательно после 2035 года.