Here are the latest, high-level updates on El Niño years and what they imply.
What El Niño is doing lately
- El Niño is the climate pattern that tends to warm global average temperatures and can influence extreme weather in various regions. Recent reporting suggests there is potential for El Niño development later in the year, which could push global temperatures toward or above record levels. This aligns with expectations that a strong El Niño period tends to boost heat globally, especially if it forms in the latter part of the year.[2]
Impacts to watch this year
- If El Niño strengthens in 2026, scientists expect warmer global temperatures, with the possibility of setting or approaching new records, depending on how the atmosphere and ocean interact this year and into 2027. While year-to-year variability exists, a pronounced El Niño typically increases heat extremes and can influence rainfall patterns in some regions, including drought in others and heavier rainfall in certain basins.[2]
Context and sources
- A recent overview notes that the last El Niño occurred in 2023–2024 and that climate services have projected 2026 as a potential candidate for record warmth if El Niño emerges, with even greater effects expected in 2027 if development is delayed to the second half of the year. NOAA and other climate agencies maintain ongoing assessments for ENSO developments and publish diagnostic discussions and projections that are updated seasonally.[6][9][2]
Quick takeaway
- Expect continued close monitoring of ENSO conditions. A confirmed El Niño later in 2026 would likely raise global temperatures further and influence weather patterns worldwide, with the strongest signals typically materializing in the following year.[9][2]
Citations
- "El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights".[2]
- Discussion of past El Niño (2023–2024) and potential record warmth in 2026/2027.[2]
- NOAA/Climate.gov ENSO information and diagnostic discussions for ongoing updates.[6][9]
Sources
Experts have advised precautionary measures to save lives threatened by surging temperatures and disruptive weather events caused by El Niño.
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www.cbsnews.comScientists say we have not yet seen the peak of this year's "Godzilla" El Nino
www.cbsnews.comThe weather phenomenon known as El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights, researchers say.
www.cbsnews.comNasa warns that the effects of the current El Nino weather phenomenon could be as bad as that of 1998, the strongest on record.
www.bbc.comThe weather phenomenon known as El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights, researchers say.
www.cbsnews.comStorms, droughts and record high temperatures lie ahead as US scientists confirm El Niño has arrived.
www.bbc.co.uk