Here are the latest updates on El Niño as of now.
Global ENSO status: The tropical Pacific is edging toward El Niño, with NOAA CPC indicating increasing odds of El Niño development in the May–July window. This transition would bring a shift from neutral conditions toward El Niño during the latter half of 2026, depending on oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks. [source: NOAA CPC outlooks]
Ocean temperatures: Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures have shown persistent warming trends in recent weeks, a key signal that forecasters monitor for El Niño formation. If these temperatures remain elevated relative to seasonal norms, the chance of El Niño strengthens. [source: NOAA CPC discussions]
Regional impacts: Onset of El Niño commonly correlates with wetter conditions in the eastern Pacific and parts of the tropics, along with potential shifts in hurricane activity in the Atlantic and drought patterns in other regions. However, exact outcomes depend on the strength and duration of the event. [sources: WMO ENSO updates; NOAA ENSO analyses]
Regional considerations for Prague/Central Europe: El Niño tends to influence global weather patterns more than regional weather on short timescales, but can modulate winter storm tracks and climate extremes indirectly via global circulation shifts. For Central Europe, the effect is usually more subtle and often interacts with other regional drivers. [general ENSO impact understanding; no single citation needed for regional specificity]
If you’d like, I can fetch the most recent official ENSO diagnostic discussions (e.g., NOAA CPC ENSO Advisory) and summarize their key points, or pull the latest WMO/IRI ENSO updates with dates and probabilities.
October 16, 2023 El Niño is expected to gain strength and flaunt its muscle this winter, and forecasters are closely watching ocean temperatures to determine just how strong the El Niño weather pattern that developed over the summer will get in the coming months. Mike McPhaden is quoted. Link: El Niño is flexing its muscles. What does this mean for California?
www.pmel.noaa.govLatest news on El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-La Niña climate pattern, which significantly alters global atmospheric circulation, affecting temperature
www.newsnow.co.ukThe weather phenomenon known as El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights, researchers say. The weather phenomenon known as El Niño could form later this year, potentially pushing global temperatures to record heights, researchers say. Namibia will cull more than 700 animals, including elephants, zebras and hippos, and distribute the meat to people impacted by severe drought in the southern African country. … A strong El Niño sounds ominous —...
www.cbsnews.comThe ENSO Blogs landing page.
www.climate.govEl Niño and La NiñaLatest status (April 2026) In the past month or so, the sea surface temperatures of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rose and remained near normal
www.hko.gov.hkClimate scientists estimate the warm weather pattern could begin to develop as early as May.
www.cbsnews.comThe WMO El Niño/La Niña Update is prepared approximately every three months through a collaborative effort between WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) as a contribution to the United Nations Inter-Agency Task Force on Natural Disaster Reduction. It is based on contributions from the leading centres around the world monitoring and predicting this phenomenon and expert consensus facilitated by WMO and IRI.More on El Niño / La Niña Monitoring and...
wmo.int